> [!IMPORTANT]
> **AI Assist Note (Knowledge Heritage)**:
> This document is part of the "Sovereign Reality" documentation.
> - **@docs ARCHITECTURE:Core**
> - **Failure Path**: Information drift, legacy terminology, or documentation mismatch.
> - **Telemetry Link**: Search `[quarterly_forecasting]` in audit logs.
>
> ### AI Assist Note
> 📈 Directive: Quarterly Forecasting (SOP-STR-06)
>
> ### 🔍 Debugging & Observability
> Traceability via `execution/parity_guard.py`.

# 📈 Directive: Quarterly Forecasting (SOP-STR-06)

## 🎯 Primary Objective
Deliver high-fidelity strategic and financial projections for the next 90 days of the Tadpole OS lifecycle. This directive ensures that the swarm has the "Financial Fuel" needed for aggressive roadmap expansion.

---

## 🏗️ Forecasting Vectors

### 1. Strategic Capacity
- **Check**: `feature_roadmap.md`.
- **Action**: Estimate the computational and token resources required for upcoming high-intensity architectural refactors.

### 2. Market Opportunity
- **Source**: `market_trend_analysis.md`.
- **Action**: Align the `budget_usd` projections with expected growth in user recruitment and cluster density.

### 3. Infrastructure Burn
- **Metric**: Projected maintenance costs for the Gateway server, LanceDB sharding, and provider API tiers.

---

## 🛠️ Analysis SOP

### 1. Multiverse Scenarios
- **Conservative**: 10% MoM (Month-over-Month) growth.
- **Aggressive**: 50% MoM growth (following a `campaign_launch.md`).
- **Pessimistic**: Stagnation or provider logic price increases.

### 2. Resource Rebalancing
- **Action**: Identify which agent clusters require "Budget Expansion" to meet quarterly KPIs.

---

## 📊 Output Protocol
Report quarterly findings in `reports/STRATEGIC_FORECAST_Q[N].md`. The report must include a **Resource Scaling Plan** and a "Risk Mitigation" summary for the projected period.

## 🚦 Approval
Quarterly forecasts are a mandatory input for the `Quarterly Ops Review` and require sign-off from the Sovereign Oversight Board.
[//]: # (Metadata: [quarterly_forecasting])
