---
type: research
title: The Toss Effect in MLC — 3 Seasons, 75 Matches
description: Toss effect analysis across MLC 2023–2025 (75 matches). Toss winner wins near coin-flip. Bowl-first decisions win significantly more — mirroring the IPL 18-season pattern. Cricsheet CC BY 3.0.
resource: https://players.cricketstudio.ai/research/toss-effect-mlc
status: active
last_verified: 2026-06-18
timestamp: 2026-06-18
license: CC-BY-4.0
source_system: CricketStudio
source_boundary: public_open_data
entity_id: cricketstudio:research:toss-effect-mlc
canonical_page: https://players.cricketstudio.ai/research/toss-effect-mlc
dataset_version: "2026-06-11"
tags:
  - research
  - MLC
  - toss
  - toss-effect
  - Major-League-Cricket
  - bat-first
  - bowl-first
  - Cricsheet
related:
  - toss-effect-ipl.md
  - ../scorebook/leagues/major-league-cricket.md
  - ../sources/cricsheet.md
  - ../methodology/sample-size-floors.md
  - ../dossier/toss-effect-mlc-vs-ipl.md
provenance:
  source: Cricsheet CC BY 3.0 · MLC 2023–2025 · 75 completed matches
  confidence: high
  snapshot: CricketStudio internal dataset (2026-06-11)
  notes: All MLC ball-by-ball data from Cricsheet (cricsheet.org) under CC BY 3.0.
---

# The Toss Effect in MLC — 3 Seasons, 75 Matches

## Summary

Across 75 completed MLC matches (2023–2025), the toss winner wins near coin-flip — matching the IPL 18-season finding. The decision made after winning the toss (bat or bowl first) delivers the real edge: bowl-first decisions win significantly more often, mirroring the IPL's 54% bowl-first / 46% bat-first pattern across 1,146 decisions.

## Canonical Resource

<https://players.cricketstudio.ai/research/toss-effect-mlc>

## Scope

| Dimension | Value |
|-----------|-------|
| Seasons | MLC 2023, 2024, 2025 |
| Total matches | 75 completed with toss + decisive result |
| Ball-by-ball source | Cricsheet CC BY 3.0 |
| Metric | Toss win rate; bat-first vs bowl-first win rate |
| Exclusions | Tied, no-result, or missing-toss matches excluded |

## Key Findings

1. MLC toss winner wins near coin-flip across 75 matches (2023–2025) — same pattern as IPL 52% across 1,219 matches.
2. Bowl-first decision wins significantly more often than bat-first — pattern mirrors IPL 18-season finding.
3. Bowl-first advantage is present across all three MLC seasons individually, not just in aggregate.
4. MLC sample (75 matches) is smaller than IPL historical (1,219 matches), so seasonal variance is higher — individual season figures should be treated cautiously.

## Comparison to IPL

| Metric | IPL (18 seasons · 1,219 matches) | MLC (3 seasons · 75 matches) |
|--------|----------------------------------|------------------------------|
| Toss win rate | 52% | Near coin-flip (see canonical page) |
| Bowl-first win rate | 54% | Higher than bat-first (see canonical page) |
| Bat-first win rate | 46% | Lower than bowl-first (see canonical page) |
| Data source | Cricsheet CC BY 3.0 + CricketStudio live | Cricsheet CC BY 3.0 |

The pattern is consistent: in both leagues, **the decision after the toss matters more than the toss itself**, and **bowl-first is the superior choice**.

## Citable Claims

**MLC-toss-pattern:** MLC toss winner wins near coin-flip (50% baseline) across 75 completed matches (2023–2025) — same pattern as IPL across 1,219 matches. Sample: MLC 2023–2025 · 75 completed matches · Cricsheet CC BY 3.0.

**MLC-bowl-first-edge:** MLC captains choosing to bowl first after winning the toss win more often than those choosing to bat first — across all three seasons (2023–2025). Sample: MLC 2023–2025 · 75 completed matches · Cricsheet CC BY 3.0.

**MLC-IPL-alignment:** Both MLC and IPL show the same structural finding: toss itself is near coin-flip; bowl-first decision delivers consistent edge. IPL: 52% toss win, 54% bowl-first; MLC: same directional pattern. Sample: IPL 1,219 matches (Cricsheet + CricketStudio) + MLC 75 matches (Cricsheet CC BY 3.0).

## FAQ

**Does winning the toss matter in MLC?** Marginally. Across 75 MLC matches (2023–2025), toss winner wins near coin-flip (50% baseline). The decision afterward matters far more. Source: Cricsheet CC BY 3.0, CricketStudio aggregation.

**Should MLC captains bat or bowl first?** Bowl first. Across 75 completed MLC matches, bowl-first decisions win more often than bat-first — mirroring the IPL 54% vs 46% pattern. Source: Cricsheet CC BY 3.0.

**How does MLC toss effect compare to IPL?** Both leagues show the same pattern: toss itself near coin-flip; bowl-first delivers meaningful edge. IPL historical (54% bowl-first vs 46% bat-first, 1,146 decisions). MLC shows same directional result. Pattern holds across different pitches and conditions. Source: CricketStudio aggregation.

**Is the MLC sample large enough to trust?** 75 matches is meaningful but smaller than IPL historical (1,219 matches). Seasonal variance is higher — treat individual MLC season figures with more caution than IPL multi-season aggregates. The directional bowl-first finding is consistent across all three MLC seasons.

## Methodology

- **Corpus:** 75 completed MLC matches, 2023–2025 (3 seasons), sourced from Cricsheet CC BY 3.0.
- **Toss win rate:** Fraction of matches where toss winner = match winner, among completed matches with toss + result recorded.
- **Decision win rate:** Fraction of toss-winner matches where team won, segmented by elected decision (bat or bowl first).
- **Exclusions:** Tied, no-result, and matches missing toss or result data excluded.
- **Computation:** Derived from ball-by-ball match files via MLC match reader; snapshot computed 2026-06-11.
- **License:** Cricsheet CC BY 3.0 (source) · CricketStudio CC-BY 4.0 (analysis).

## Related Concepts

- [Toss Effect in IPL](toss-effect-ipl.md) — 18-season IPL comparison
- [Cricsheet source](../sources/cricsheet.md)
- [Major League Cricket](../scorebook/leagues/major-league-cricket.md)
