---
title: Prediction Markets Weekly
type: L2-brief
theme: prediction-markets
week: 2026-W34
updated: 2026-08-17T09:00:00Z
sources: [prediction-markets]
license: CC-BY-4.0
attribution: azimuth (HemySphere doctrine demonstrator) — see CREDITS.md for upstream sources
---

# Prediction Markets Weekly

> Synthesised from the week's L1 source notes under `../01 Sources/`. The `azimuth-curator`
> fleet role evolves this single note in place each week. A prediction-market **quoted price is
> an observed fact** — what traders are currently paying, recorded by the venue — so azimuth
> reports it the same way it reports a gas-storage figure or an earthquake magnitude. It is
> **not** a forecast azimuth makes, and **not** an instruction to trade: odds are not
> predictions, and nothing here is investment advice. azimuth reports the priced number and its
> source, and takes no position on the underlying question. (This cycle absorbs the
> 2026-08-17 daily ingest, extending the **no-rotation** run that began after the ninth
> rotation landed on 08-01: Polymarket's "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?" has now
> remained the feed's sole live listing across eleven straight pulls, 2026-08-07 through
> 2026-08-17, with the quoted yes price drifting from 0.185 on 08-07 to 0.165 by 08-15 and
> holding flat there through 08-17, while cumulative volume rose from ~$57.49M to ~$58.65M
> over the run.)

## This week at a glance

- The WorldMonitor prediction-market feed's single live listing **held steady** this cycle — an
  extended **no-rotation** run, the first since the ninth rotation landed on the 08-01 pull:
  Polymarket's **"Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?"** remained the sole contract across all
  eleven daily pulls, 2026-08-07 through 2026-08-17 ([[prediction-markets]]).
- Across the run the quoted **yes price drifted from 0.185 (18.5% implied probability) on 08-07 to
  0.165 (16.5%) on 08-17** — a 2.0-percentage-point decline over the full run — fluctuating between
  0.155 and 0.185 along the way and holding flat at 0.165 for three straight pulls (08-15, 08-16,
  08-17), unchanged day-on-day from 08-16. The venue's number is recorded as an observed fact;
  azimuth takes no position on the underlying question ([[prediction-markets]]).
- Cumulative traded volume rose across the run from **$57,492,676** (08-07) to **$58,651,476**
  (08-17) — a **~$1.16M / ~2.0% increase** over the run, including a **~$46,591 (~0.08%)**
  day-on-day rise from 08-16's $58,604,885 — continuing the steady growth this listing has shown
  since its 07-31 debut, and still the **deepest book recorded** in the brief's run. Volume is
  reported as a measure of liquidity behind the quoted odds, not as a signal to act on
  ([[prediction-markets]]).

## The market

- Polymarket's quoted **yes price of 0.165** (as of the 08-17 pull, unchanged from 08-16) is the
  observed datum: traders are collectively paying about 16.5 cents for a contract that pays out
  1.00 if the market's stated condition — a US invasion of Iran before 2027 — resolves true, which
  by construction reads as a **16.5% implied probability** priced by the venue, down from **0.245
  (24.5%)** on the ninth-rotation debut and from **0.185 (18.5%)** on the 08-07 pull at the start
  of the run. The question is a geopolitical one; azimuth's report is not a call on it: it records
  the venue's number and takes no position on the outcome or the market's resolution
  ([[prediction-markets]]).
- The **$58,651,476 cumulative traded volume** recorded on the 08-17 pull is the liquidity behind
  that price, up **~$46,591** from **$58,604,885** on the 08-16 pull and up from **$57,492,676** on
  the 08-07 pull — a continuation of the steady book growth this listing has shown since it first
  appeared on 07-31, and still the deepest book the brief has recorded. Volume is reported as a
  measure of how much weight sits behind the quoted odds, not as a signal to act on
  ([[prediction-markets]]).

## Reading the week

- An extended no-rotation run: the feed's single live contract is still Polymarket's "Will the
  U.S. invade Iran before 2027?", and the venue's quoted price held at a **16.5% implied
  probability** on 08-17 — unchanged from 08-16, down from 18.5% at the 08-07 start of the run —
  while cumulative volume grew **~$1.16M** across the run to **$58,651,476**, the deepest book
  yet recorded. azimuth states what was recorded and stops there: the odds are the market's, not
  azimuth's, and the editorial line forbids reading them as either a forecast or a reason to
  trade ([[prediction-markets]]).
- **Breadth note (honest scope):** the live feed still lists exactly one market at a time. The
  current listing has now held without rotating for eleven straight daily pulls (2026-08-07
  through 2026-08-17) — the longest no-rotation stretch in the brief's run — following nine
  rotations recorded earlier (Greenland → Russia → Israel → US–Iran uranium → Iran–MOU →
  Iran-regime → Base-token → Fed-rate-cuts → US-invade-Iran). A week-on-week price move, when the
  listing holds like this, is a genuine within-listing comparison, though continuity is never
  guaranteed across future cycles. As the upstream feed carries a broader market set, this note
  widens to report the spread of priced questions; until then it tracks whatever single market
  the feed quotes, reporting price, volume and listing changes as observed facts
  ([[prediction-markets]]).

## Changelog

- 2026-08-17 — daily-ingest synthesis (2026-W34): absorbed the 2026-08-17 ingest — no listing rotation, extending the no-rotation run to eleven straight pulls (2026-08-07 through 2026-08-17). Polymarket's "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?" remained the sole listed contract; yes price held flat at 0.165 (16.5% implied probability) for a third straight pull (08-15/08-16/08-17), unchanged day-on-day; cumulative volume rose from $58,604,885 (08-16) to $58,651,476 (08-17) — a ~$46,591 / ~0.08% day-on-day increase, and ~$1.16M / ~2.0% above the 08-07 start of the run — still the deepest book recorded in the brief's run. Venue-quoted price reported as an observed fact — no forecast, no investment framing, no position on the underlying question ([[prediction-markets]]).
- 2026-08-16 — daily-ingest synthesis (2026-W33): absorbed the 2026-08-14 through 2026-08-16 ingest — no listing rotation; the no-rotation run since the 08-01 ninth rotation now extends to ten straight pulls. Polymarket's "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?" remained the sole listed contract; yes price eased from 0.175 (17.5% implied probability) on 08-13/08-14 to 0.165 (16.5%) on 08-15/08-16 — a further 1.0-percentage-point decline, fluctuating 0.155–0.185 over the full 08-07 → 08-16 run — while cumulative volume rose from $58,544,751 (08-13) to $58,604,885 (08-16), still the deepest book recorded in the brief's run. Venue-quoted price reported as an observed fact — no forecast, no investment framing, no position on the underlying question ([[prediction-markets]]).
- 2026-06-26 — first Prediction Markets Weekly cycle, written from the live 2026-06-26 ingest.
  Reports Polymarket's single live market ("Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?") at
  its quoted 0.105 yes price (10.5% implied probability) on $10.31M volume, framed strictly as an
  observed venue-quoted fact under the fact-vs-propaganda editorial line — no forecast, no
  investment framing, no position on the underlying question. This brief lands per Michael's
  an owner review (2026-06-26), which reversed the earlier hold (2026-06-24) and put
  prediction-markets in scope for the editorial lens. Single-market breadth noted as the current
  scope limit ([[prediction-markets]]).
- 2026-06-30 — daily-ingest flowback (2026-W27): the feed still lists exactly one market
  (Polymarket's "Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?"). Week-on-week the quoted yes
  price was unchanged at 0.105 (10.5% implied probability) while cumulative volume ticked
  marginally higher to $10.32M (from $10.31M). Reported as observed venue-quoted facts — no
  forecast, no investment framing, no position on the underlying question; the brief's `week` and
  `updated` were advanced to record that the latest L1 day was absorbed ([[prediction-markets]]).
- 2026-07-02 — weekly synthesis (2026-W27): absorbed the 2026-07-01 and 2026-07-02 ingest days —
  a listing-rotation cycle. The feed's single live market changed: the Greenland-acquisition
  question was last carried on the 2026-07-01 pull (0.105 yes, $10.33M) and no longer appears;
  the 2026-07-02 pull instead lists Polymarket's "Putin out as President of Russia by
  December 31, 2026?" at a 0.115 yes price (11.5% implied probability) on $13.28M cumulative
  volume, resolving 2026-12-31. Rewrote the at-a-glance, market and reading sections around the
  new listing and noted in the breadth scope that the single-market listing can rotate.
  Venue-quoted price reported as an observed fact — no forecast, no investment framing, no
  position on the underlying (political) question ([[prediction-markets]]).
- 2026-07-13 — weekly synthesis (2026-W29): absorbed the 2026-07-13 ingest after an 11-day
  curator gap — another listing-rotation cycle. The feed's single live market changed again: the
  "Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?" question was last carried on the
  2026-07-02 pull (0.115 yes, $13.28M) and no longer appears; the 2026-07-13 pull instead lists
  Polymarket's "Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?" at a 0.105 yes price
  (10.5% implied probability) on $26.50M cumulative volume, resolving 2026-12-31. Rewrote the
  at-a-glance, market and reading sections around the new listing and noted the single-market
  listing has now rotated three straight cycles. Venue-quoted price reported as an observed fact
  — no forecast, no investment framing, no position on the underlying (political) question
  ([[prediction-markets]]).
- 2026-07-15 — daily-ingest flowback (2026-W29): absorbed the 2026-07-14 and 2026-07-15 ingests —
  a fourth listing-rotation cycle. The Bennett/Israel question was last carried on the 2026-07-14
  pull (0.105 yes, $26.61M) and no longer appears; the 2026-07-15 pull instead lists Polymarket's
  "US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?" at a 0.115 yes price (11.5% implied
  probability) on $28.50M cumulative volume — the largest of the four listings recorded — 
  resolving end-2026. Rewrote the at-a-glance, market and reading sections around the new listing
  and extended the breadth note to four straight rotations. Venue-quoted price reported as an
  observed fact — no forecast, no investment framing, no position on the underlying question
  ([[prediction-markets]]).
- 2026-07-18 — daily-ingest synthesis (2026-W29): absorbed the 2026-07-16 and 2026-07-17 ingests — no listing rotation. The "US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?" market remained the sole listed contract; yes price held flat at 0.115 (11.5% implied probability) on both days; cumulative volume rose from $28,518,862 (07-16) to $28,528,722 (07-17), a ~$28K two-day increment ([[prediction-markets]]).
- 2026-07-21 — daily-ingest synthesis (2026-W30): absorbed the 07-18 through 07-20 ingests — a fifth listing rotation. The "US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?" market (0.115 yes, ~$28.5M through 07-17) no longer appears; the 07-20 pull instead lists Polymarket's "Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?" at a 0.10 yes price (10% implied probability) on $7,439,764 cumulative volume, resolving 2026-07-31. Rewrote the at-a-glance, market and reading sections around the new listing and extended the breadth note to five straight rotations. Venue-quoted price reported as an observed fact — no forecast, no investment framing, no position on the underlying question ([[prediction-markets]]).
- 2026-07-23 — daily-ingest synthesis (2026-W30): absorbed the 07-21 through 07-23 ingests — a sixth listing rotation. The Iran–MOU-negotiations market carried on the 07-20 pull no longer appears; the 07-21 through 07-23 pulls instead all list Polymarket's "Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?" at a 0.105 yes price (10.5% implied probability) on a steadily-growing book — $22,612,658 (07-21) → $22,797,334 (07-22) → $22,860,862 (07-23), resolving 2026-12-31. Rewrote the at-a-glance, market and reading sections around the new listing and extended the breadth note to six straight rotations. Venue-quoted price reported as an observed fact — no forecast, no investment framing, no position on the underlying question ([[prediction-markets]]).
- 2026-07-24 — daily-ingest synthesis (2026-W30): absorbed the 07-24 ingest — no listing rotation, no price move. Polymarket's "Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?" remains the sole listed contract; yes price holds flat at 0.105 (10.5% implied probability); cumulative volume ticked up ~$138K to $22,999,308 (from $22,860,862 on 07-23), continuing the steady-growth pattern seen across all four days of this sub-cycle. Values refreshed in brief; frontmatter `updated` advanced to 2026-07-24. Venue-quoted price reported as an observed fact — no forecast, no investment framing, no position on the underlying question ([[prediction-markets]]).
- 2026-07-25 — daily-ingest synthesis (2026-W30): absorbed the 07-25 ingest — a seventh listing rotation. The "Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?" market (0.105 yes, ~$23.0M through 07-24) no longer appears; the 07-25 pull instead lists Polymarket's "Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?" at a 0.12 yes price (12.0% implied probability) on $7,430,218 cumulative volume — a crypto/tech question after a long geopolitical run, on a much thinner book than the outgoing ~$23.0M listing. Rewrote the at-a-glance, market and reading sections around the new listing and extended the breadth note to seven straight rotations; because the question changed, price and volume are not week-on-week comparable. Venue-quoted price reported as an observed fact — no forecast, no investment framing, no position on the underlying question ([[prediction-markets]]).
- 2026-07-30 — daily-ingest synthesis (2026-W31): absorbed the 2026-07-26 through 2026-07-30 ingest after a five-day gap behind the live L1 — an eighth listing rotation. The "Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?" market (0.12 yes, ~$7.43M through 07-25) no longer appears; the 07-30 pull instead lists Polymarket's "Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?" at a 0.891 yes price (89.1% implied probability) on $45,639,591 cumulative volume — the deepest book recorded in the brief's run, a US monetary-policy question after a crypto/tech one, resolving 2026-12-31. Rewrote the at-a-glance, market and reading sections around the new listing and extended the breadth note to eight straight rotations; because the question changed, price and volume are not week-on-week comparable. Venue-quoted price reported as an observed fact — no forecast, no investment framing, no position on the underlying question ([[prediction-markets]]).
- 2026-08-01 — daily-ingest synthesis (2026-W31): absorbed the 2026-07-31 and 2026-08-01 ingests — a ninth listing rotation. The "Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?" market (0.891 yes, ~$45.64M through 07-30) no longer appears; the 07-31 pull instead lists Polymarket's "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?" at a 0.245 yes price (24.5% implied probability) on $50,904,761 cumulative volume, and the 08-01 pull holds the same listing with the book ticking up ~$0.6M to $51,530,245 — the deepest recorded in the brief's run, resolving end-2026. Rewrote the at-a-glance, market and reading sections around the new listing and extended the breadth note to nine straight rotations; because the question changed, price and volume are not week-on-week comparable. Venue-quoted price reported as an observed fact — no forecast, no investment framing, no position on the underlying question ([[prediction-markets]]).
- 2026-08-13 — daily-ingest synthesis (2026-W33): absorbed the 2026-08-07 through 2026-08-13 ingest — no listing rotation, the first such week since the ninth rotation on 08-01. Polymarket's "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?" remained the sole listed contract; yes price moved from 0.185 (18.5% implied probability) on 08-07 to 0.175 (17.5%) on 08-13 — a 1.0-percentage-point decline, fluctuating between 0.155 and 0.185 across the intervening daily pulls — while cumulative volume rose from $57,492,676 to $58,544,751 (~$1.05M / ~1.8% increase), still the deepest book recorded in the brief's run. Venue-quoted price reported as an observed fact — no forecast, no investment framing, no position on the underlying question ([[prediction-markets]]).
