---
title: Benchmark — Facts vs Forecast vs Intelligence
type: L2-brief
theme: cross-theme
week: 2026-W34
updated: 2026-08-17T04:00:00Z
sources: [crude-oil-inventories, earthquakes, energy-prices, natural-gas-storage-eu]
license: CC-BY-4.0
attribution: azimuth (HemySphere doctrine demonstrator) — see CREDITS.md for upstream sources; the forecast/intelligence columns quote WorldMonitor as the COMPARED product, not an azimuth channel
---

# Benchmark — azimuth vs a forecast vs an intelligence feed

> *Why not just read a forecast or an intelligence feed?* Here is the same world-topic through three columns: **azimuth** (observed facts from the live bundle, every claim linked to its L1 source), a **FORECAST** product (a model probability), and an **INTELLIGENCE** product (an analyst assessment). It is a fair contrast, not a strawman: azimuth wins on provenance, neutrality and reproducibility; a forecast / intel feed legitimately wins on **forward-looking coverage** — it predicts, azimuth reports what already happened. The forecast / intelligence columns quote WorldMonitor as the *compared product* (captured 2026-08-17T07:14:06Z), deliberately NOT a clickable L1 link — because that is exactly the difference.

## EU / global energy supply security

> **Head-to-head question:** Is the world's oil & gas supply getting safer or more fragile?

### azimuth — observed facts (EU gas storage + US crude inventories + Energy prices)

- EU gas storage stands at 3,153 Bcf (+36 Bcf w/w) as of 2026-08-07 — an observed reading ([[natural-gas-storage-eu]])
- US crude inventories built +11,308 to 723,104 Mb (EIA week of 2026-08-07) — an observed reading ([[crude-oil-inventories]])
- Spot crude as reported: WTI $78.94/bbl (-6.6 w/w), Brent $87.86/bbl (-4.1 w/w) — the observed price tape ([[energy-prices]])

### FORECAST product — model projection (compared)

> Assigns a **40% probability** over 30d that “Oil price impact from Strait of Hormuz disruption” — confidence 58%, trend stable.
>
> Probability path: d30=17%, d7=23%, h24=40%
>
> — *WorldMonitor forecast feed (model projection), captured 2026-08-17T07:14:06Z*

### INTELLIGENCE product — analyst assessment (compared)

> Strait of Hormuz risk: critical is setting the strategic baseline, and the current 40% probability implies a live but not settled risk path.
>
> Actor lens: Commodity traders: Price whether stress in Middle East becomes durable over the 30d. Rebalance positions if the probability path moves away from 40%.
>
> — *WorldMonitor intelligence assessment (analyst judgement), captured 2026-08-17T07:14:06Z*

### Scorecard

| Dimension | azimuth | Forecast | Intelligence |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Every claim sourced? ✅ | Yes — each claim links to its L1 note | No — the probability is asserted, not sourced | No — the assessment is asserted, not sourced |
| Observed vs predicted? ✅ | Observed — reports what already happened | Predicted — a probability over a horizon | Assessed — an analyst judgement |
| Neutral vs takes a position? ✅ | Neutral — states the signal, takes no side | Takes a position — it is a forward call | Takes a position — actor lenses imply action |
| Reproducible / regenerable? ✅ | Yes — rerun the open-data pipeline, same result | No — a model output you cannot rebuild | No — a judgement you cannot rebuild |
| Free + open-licensed? ✅ | Yes — CC-BY-4.0, public-domain sources | Compared product (proprietary model output) | Compared product (proprietary model output) |
| Forward-looking coverage? | No — azimuth is a rear/now view, not a crystal ball | Yes — this is its job: it looks ahead | Yes — it offers a forward assessment |

### Verdict

- **Trust test:** the forecast tells you a *probability* of oil-supply stress; azimuth tells you what the physical balances and the price tape ACTUALLY did this week, and lets you click each figure back to its source. The forecast is the better crystal ball; azimuth is the better witness — provenance you can verify, neutral wording, and a result you can regenerate yourself ([[crude-oil-inventories]], [[energy-prices]])

## A maritime / supply-chain shift and its inflation pressure

> **Head-to-head question:** Is a shipping/supply-chain shock feeding inflation pressure?

### azimuth — observed facts (Energy prices + US crude inventories)

- WTI crude as reported: $78.94/bbl (-6.6 w/w) — the observed energy-cost input to inflation, not a forecast of it ([[energy-prices]])
- US crude stocks +11,308 (week of 2026-08-07) — the observed physical balance behind the cost line, every figure clickable ([[crude-oil-inventories]])

### FORECAST product — model projection (compared)

> Assigns a **55% probability** over 30d that “Inflation and rates pressure from Eastern Mediterranean maritime disruption state” — confidence 75%, trend stable.
>
> Probability path: d30=23%, d7=32%, h24=55%
>
> — *WorldMonitor forecast feed (model projection), captured 2026-08-17T07:14:06Z*

### INTELLIGENCE product — analyst assessment (compared)

> Eastern Mediterranean maritime disruption state is feeding inflation and rates pressure through shipping cost shock, with 46% pressure and 71% state confirmation is setting the strategic baseline, and the current 55% probability implies a live but not settled risk path.
>
> Actor lens: Commodity traders: Price whether stress in Eastern Mediterranean becomes durable over the 30d. Rebalance positions if the probability path moves away from 55%.
>
> — *WorldMonitor intelligence assessment (analyst judgement), captured 2026-08-17T07:14:06Z*

### Scorecard

| Dimension | azimuth | Forecast | Intelligence |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Every claim sourced? ✅ | Yes — each claim links to its L1 note | No — the probability is asserted, not sourced | No — the assessment is asserted, not sourced |
| Observed vs predicted? ✅ | Observed — reports what already happened | Predicted — a probability over a horizon | Assessed — an analyst judgement |
| Neutral vs takes a position? ✅ | Neutral — states the signal, takes no side | Takes a position — it is a forward call | Takes a position — actor lenses imply action |
| Reproducible / regenerable? ✅ | Yes — rerun the open-data pipeline, same result | No — a model output you cannot rebuild | No — a judgement you cannot rebuild |
| Free + open-licensed? ✅ | Yes — CC-BY-4.0, public-domain sources | Compared product (proprietary model output) | Compared product (proprietary model output) |
| Forward-looking coverage? | No — azimuth is a rear/now view, not a crystal ball | Yes — this is its job: it looks ahead | Yes — it offers a forward assessment |

### Verdict

- **Trust test:** the forecast assigns a probability to a maritime-disruption / inflation path; azimuth does not predict the disruption — it surfaces the observed energy-cost facts it CAN see, each linked to source. Read the forecast for the forward call; read azimuth for the verifiable, neutral baseline it is told against ([[energy-prices]], [[crude-oil-inventories]])

## A seismic event near infrastructure

> **Head-to-head question:** Did a major earthquake this week threaten energy infrastructure?

### azimuth — observed facts (Geophysical)

- Largest recorded event this week: M7.7 68 km NNW of Ende, Indonesia — one of 57 events at or above M5 USGS logged, an observed record ([[earthquakes]])
- azimuth reports what USGS RECORDED, never what may happen next — a sourced, neutral record of seismicity, regenerable from the open USGS feed ([[earthquakes]])

### FORECAST product — model projection (compared)

> No product publishes a seismic forecast — earthquakes are not predictable, so there is no forecast/intel alternative to azimuth's observed USGS record. This is the honest inverse: for an observed natural-hazard fact, the sourced record IS the only trustworthy source.

### INTELLIGENCE product — analyst assessment (compared)

> No product publishes a seismic forecast — earthquakes are not predictable, so there is no forecast/intel alternative to azimuth's observed USGS record. This is the honest inverse: for an observed natural-hazard fact, the sourced record IS the only trustworthy source.

### Scorecard

| Dimension | azimuth | Forecast | Intelligence |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Every claim sourced? ✅ | Yes — each claim links to its L1 note | — | — |
| Observed vs predicted? ✅ | Observed — reports what already happened | — | — |
| Neutral vs takes a position? ✅ | Neutral — states the signal, takes no side | — | — |
| Reproducible / regenerable? ✅ | Yes — rerun the open-data pipeline, same result | — | — |
| Free + open-licensed? ✅ | Yes — CC-BY-4.0, public-domain sources | — | — |
| Forward-looking coverage? | No — azimuth is a rear/now view, not a crystal ball | — | — |

### Verdict

- **Trust test:** nobody credibly forecasts earthquakes, so there is no forecast/intel column to compare — the observed USGS record IS the only trustworthy source, and it is exactly azimuth's lane: sourced, neutral, regenerable. The honest limit cuts the other way too — azimuth tells you what shook, never what will ([[earthquakes]])

## How this benchmark is made

> azimuth's columns are generated deterministically by `synthesis/benchmark.py` from the live L1 bundle — every figure read straight from a source note, every claim carrying its inline L1-source citation, nothing invented and nothing predicted. The forecast and intelligence columns are a dated snapshot of the compared product, captured by `scripts/pull_benchmark_foils.py` on the weekly cadence and quoted by product + date. Re-run after any ingest and azimuth's side refreshes in place.

## Changelog

- 2026-06-24 — regenerated the facts-vs-forecast-vs-intelligence benchmark from the 2026-06-24 live bundle (2026-W26); 3 head-to-head topics, every azimuth claim L1-sourced, foil snapshot quoted as the compared product.
- 2026-06-25 — regenerated the facts-vs-forecast-vs-intelligence benchmark from the 2026-06-25 live bundle (2026-W26); 3 head-to-head topics, every azimuth claim L1-sourced, foil snapshot quoted as the compared product.
- 2026-06-26 — regenerated the facts-vs-forecast-vs-intelligence benchmark from the 2026-06-26 live bundle (2026-W26); 3 head-to-head topics, every azimuth claim L1-sourced, foil snapshot quoted as the compared product.
- 2026-06-27 — regenerated the facts-vs-forecast-vs-intelligence benchmark from the 2026-06-27 live bundle (2026-W26); 3 head-to-head topics, every azimuth claim L1-sourced, foil snapshot quoted as the compared product.
- 2026-06-28 — regenerated the facts-vs-forecast-vs-intelligence benchmark from the 2026-06-28 live bundle (2026-W26); 3 head-to-head topics, every azimuth claim L1-sourced, foil snapshot quoted as the compared product.
- 2026-06-29 — regenerated the facts-vs-forecast-vs-intelligence benchmark from the 2026-06-29 live bundle (2026-W27); 3 head-to-head topics, every azimuth claim L1-sourced, foil snapshot quoted as the compared product.
- 2026-06-30 — regenerated the facts-vs-forecast-vs-intelligence benchmark from the 2026-06-30 live bundle (2026-W27); 3 head-to-head topics, every azimuth claim L1-sourced, foil snapshot quoted as the compared product.
- 2026-07-01 — regenerated the facts-vs-forecast-vs-intelligence benchmark from the 2026-07-01 live bundle (2026-W27); 3 head-to-head topics, every azimuth claim L1-sourced, foil snapshot quoted as the compared product.
- 2026-07-02 — regenerated the facts-vs-forecast-vs-intelligence benchmark from the 2026-07-02 live bundle (2026-W27); 3 head-to-head topics, every azimuth claim L1-sourced, foil snapshot quoted as the compared product.
- 2026-07-03 — regenerated the facts-vs-forecast-vs-intelligence benchmark from the 2026-07-03 live bundle (2026-W27); 3 head-to-head topics, every azimuth claim L1-sourced, foil snapshot quoted as the compared product.
- 2026-07-04 — regenerated the facts-vs-forecast-vs-intelligence benchmark from the 2026-07-04 live bundle (2026-W27); 3 head-to-head topics, every azimuth claim L1-sourced, foil snapshot quoted as the compared product.
- 2026-07-05 — regenerated the facts-vs-forecast-vs-intelligence benchmark from the 2026-07-05 live bundle (2026-W27); 3 head-to-head topics, every azimuth claim L1-sourced, foil snapshot quoted as the compared product.
- 2026-07-06 — regenerated the facts-vs-forecast-vs-intelligence benchmark from the 2026-07-06 live bundle (2026-W28); 3 head-to-head topics, every azimuth claim L1-sourced, foil snapshot quoted as the compared product.
- 2026-07-07 — regenerated the facts-vs-forecast-vs-intelligence benchmark from the 2026-07-07 live bundle (2026-W28); 3 head-to-head topics, every azimuth claim L1-sourced, foil snapshot quoted as the compared product.
- 2026-07-08 — regenerated the facts-vs-forecast-vs-intelligence benchmark from the 2026-07-08 live bundle (2026-W28); 3 head-to-head topics, every azimuth claim L1-sourced, foil snapshot quoted as the compared product.
- 2026-07-09 — regenerated the facts-vs-forecast-vs-intelligence benchmark from the 2026-07-09 live bundle (2026-W28); 3 head-to-head topics, every azimuth claim L1-sourced, foil snapshot quoted as the compared product.
- 2026-07-10 — regenerated the facts-vs-forecast-vs-intelligence benchmark from the 2026-07-10 live bundle (2026-W28); 3 head-to-head topics, every azimuth claim L1-sourced, foil snapshot quoted as the compared product.
- 2026-07-11 — regenerated the facts-vs-forecast-vs-intelligence benchmark from the 2026-07-11 live bundle (2026-W28); 3 head-to-head topics, every azimuth claim L1-sourced, foil snapshot quoted as the compared product.
- 2026-07-12 — regenerated the facts-vs-forecast-vs-intelligence benchmark from the 2026-07-12 live bundle (2026-W28); 3 head-to-head topics, every azimuth claim L1-sourced, foil snapshot quoted as the compared product.
- 2026-07-13 — regenerated the facts-vs-forecast-vs-intelligence benchmark from the 2026-07-13 live bundle (2026-W29); 3 head-to-head topics, every azimuth claim L1-sourced, foil snapshot quoted as the compared product.
- 2026-07-14 — regenerated the facts-vs-forecast-vs-intelligence benchmark from the 2026-07-14 live bundle (2026-W29); 3 head-to-head topics, every azimuth claim L1-sourced, foil snapshot quoted as the compared product.
- 2026-07-15 — regenerated the facts-vs-forecast-vs-intelligence benchmark from the 2026-07-15 live bundle (2026-W29); 3 head-to-head topics, every azimuth claim L1-sourced, foil snapshot quoted as the compared product.
- 2026-07-16 — regenerated the facts-vs-forecast-vs-intelligence benchmark from the 2026-07-16 live bundle (2026-W29); 3 head-to-head topics, every azimuth claim L1-sourced, foil snapshot quoted as the compared product.
- 2026-07-17 — regenerated the facts-vs-forecast-vs-intelligence benchmark from the 2026-07-17 live bundle (2026-W29); 3 head-to-head topics, every azimuth claim L1-sourced, foil snapshot quoted as the compared product.
- 2026-07-18 — regenerated the facts-vs-forecast-vs-intelligence benchmark from the 2026-07-18 live bundle (2026-W29); 3 head-to-head topics, every azimuth claim L1-sourced, foil snapshot quoted as the compared product.
- 2026-07-19 — regenerated the facts-vs-forecast-vs-intelligence benchmark from the 2026-07-19 live bundle (2026-W29); 3 head-to-head topics, every azimuth claim L1-sourced, foil snapshot quoted as the compared product.
- 2026-07-20 — regenerated the facts-vs-forecast-vs-intelligence benchmark from the 2026-07-20 live bundle (2026-W30); 3 head-to-head topics, every azimuth claim L1-sourced, foil snapshot quoted as the compared product.
- 2026-07-21 — regenerated the facts-vs-forecast-vs-intelligence benchmark from the 2026-07-21 live bundle (2026-W30); 3 head-to-head topics, every azimuth claim L1-sourced, foil snapshot quoted as the compared product.
- 2026-07-22 — regenerated the facts-vs-forecast-vs-intelligence benchmark from the 2026-07-22 live bundle (2026-W30); 3 head-to-head topics, every azimuth claim L1-sourced, foil snapshot quoted as the compared product.
- 2026-07-23 — regenerated the facts-vs-forecast-vs-intelligence benchmark from the 2026-07-23 live bundle (2026-W30); 3 head-to-head topics, every azimuth claim L1-sourced, foil snapshot quoted as the compared product.
- 2026-07-24 — regenerated the facts-vs-forecast-vs-intelligence benchmark from the 2026-07-24 live bundle (2026-W30); 3 head-to-head topics, every azimuth claim L1-sourced, foil snapshot quoted as the compared product.
- 2026-07-25 — regenerated the facts-vs-forecast-vs-intelligence benchmark from the 2026-07-25 live bundle (2026-W30); 3 head-to-head topics, every azimuth claim L1-sourced, foil snapshot quoted as the compared product.
- 2026-07-26 — regenerated the facts-vs-forecast-vs-intelligence benchmark from the 2026-07-26 live bundle (2026-W30); 3 head-to-head topics, every azimuth claim L1-sourced, foil snapshot quoted as the compared product.
- 2026-07-27 — regenerated the facts-vs-forecast-vs-intelligence benchmark from the 2026-07-27 live bundle (2026-W31); 3 head-to-head topics, every azimuth claim L1-sourced, foil snapshot quoted as the compared product.
- 2026-07-28 — regenerated the facts-vs-forecast-vs-intelligence benchmark from the 2026-07-28 live bundle (2026-W31); 3 head-to-head topics, every azimuth claim L1-sourced, foil snapshot quoted as the compared product.
- 2026-07-29 — regenerated the facts-vs-forecast-vs-intelligence benchmark from the 2026-07-29 live bundle (2026-W31); 3 head-to-head topics, every azimuth claim L1-sourced, foil snapshot quoted as the compared product.
- 2026-07-30 — regenerated the facts-vs-forecast-vs-intelligence benchmark from the 2026-07-30 live bundle (2026-W31); 3 head-to-head topics, every azimuth claim L1-sourced, foil snapshot quoted as the compared product.
- 2026-07-31 — regenerated the facts-vs-forecast-vs-intelligence benchmark from the 2026-07-31 live bundle (2026-W31); 3 head-to-head topics, every azimuth claim L1-sourced, foil snapshot quoted as the compared product.
- 2026-08-01 — regenerated the facts-vs-forecast-vs-intelligence benchmark from the 2026-08-01 live bundle (2026-W31); 3 head-to-head topics, every azimuth claim L1-sourced, foil snapshot quoted as the compared product.
- 2026-08-07 — regenerated the facts-vs-forecast-vs-intelligence benchmark from the 2026-08-07 live bundle (2026-W32); 3 head-to-head topics, every azimuth claim L1-sourced, foil snapshot quoted as the compared product.
- 2026-08-08 — regenerated the facts-vs-forecast-vs-intelligence benchmark from the 2026-08-08 live bundle (2026-W32); 3 head-to-head topics, every azimuth claim L1-sourced, foil snapshot quoted as the compared product.
- 2026-08-09 — regenerated the facts-vs-forecast-vs-intelligence benchmark from the 2026-08-09 live bundle (2026-W32); 3 head-to-head topics, every azimuth claim L1-sourced, foil snapshot quoted as the compared product.
- 2026-08-10 — regenerated the facts-vs-forecast-vs-intelligence benchmark from the 2026-08-10 live bundle (2026-W33); 3 head-to-head topics, every azimuth claim L1-sourced, foil snapshot quoted as the compared product.
- 2026-08-11 — regenerated the facts-vs-forecast-vs-intelligence benchmark from the 2026-08-11 live bundle (2026-W33); 3 head-to-head topics, every azimuth claim L1-sourced, foil snapshot quoted as the compared product.
- 2026-08-12 — regenerated the facts-vs-forecast-vs-intelligence benchmark from the 2026-08-12 live bundle (2026-W33); 3 head-to-head topics, every azimuth claim L1-sourced, foil snapshot quoted as the compared product.
- 2026-08-13 — regenerated the facts-vs-forecast-vs-intelligence benchmark from the 2026-08-13 live bundle (2026-W33); 3 head-to-head topics, every azimuth claim L1-sourced, foil snapshot quoted as the compared product.
- 2026-08-14 — regenerated the facts-vs-forecast-vs-intelligence benchmark from the 2026-08-14 live bundle (2026-W33); 3 head-to-head topics, every azimuth claim L1-sourced, foil snapshot quoted as the compared product.
- 2026-08-15 — regenerated the facts-vs-forecast-vs-intelligence benchmark from the 2026-08-15 live bundle (2026-W33); 3 head-to-head topics, every azimuth claim L1-sourced, foil snapshot quoted as the compared product.
- 2026-08-16 — regenerated the facts-vs-forecast-vs-intelligence benchmark from the 2026-08-16 live bundle (2026-W33); 3 head-to-head topics, every azimuth claim L1-sourced, foil snapshot quoted as the compared product.
- 2026-08-17 — regenerated the facts-vs-forecast-vs-intelligence benchmark from the 2026-08-17 live bundle (2026-W34); 3 head-to-head topics, every azimuth claim L1-sourced, foil snapshot quoted as the compared product.
